I’ve spent a good chunk of my PR and Communications career in the auto industry. No doubt because of that, one of the most frequent questions I get from friends, family, and random strangers on the street is: “When is the best time to buy a car?”
A question of timing…
Vehicles are expensive, I get it, and there’s a definite lack of trust in the shopping experience. Still, the number of times I’ve been asked that question leads me to conclude that much of the population is convinced there’s a 5-minute window where the car or truck of their dreams becomes ridiculously cheap.
FOMO, automotive style.
Unfortunately, as foretold by the title of this post, my most common answer is also the most unhelpful: “Well, that depends…”
Now, I’m not cruel. I usually explain why before I get into some tips that can help find a good deal and they have nothing to do with timing.
The first thing to know is that Canada’s automotive sector is cyclical. The chart below is from 2018, but it’s illustrative. What you see is that sales volumes pick-up earnestly in March, peak in May, and taper-off in the back-half of the year.
Source: Statistics Canada
Generally speaking, automotive companies have sales objectives they are expected to hit. Which means, if your brand of choice misses their sales targets in the March-to-June period, they’re at risk of missing it for the year. Depending on the aggressiveness of their targets, the company’s marketing and incentive programs may change month-to-month or year-to-year to get ahead, recapture lost ground, or mitigate losses.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants provides a good snapshot of how each brand is doing for the most recent month and the year. Without knowing the internal targets the Canadian operation is trying to achieve as well as their shipment plan from the factories, your best indicator is the sweetness level of the national incentive programs. Unfortunately, those can change quarterly, monthly, and sometimes weekly.
Moving from a sector/brand/company to a layer deeper, things get even more squishy at the model line level.
Sale volumes of sedans are falling as customers are increasingly choosing SUVs and crossovers to park in their driveways. So if you’re willing to drive a car, relative to a SUV or crossover, you might find there are deals nationwide… if it’s not a recently redesigned, new model.
Like any other consumer product, what sells is what’s new and hot. So, automakers are in a perpetual state of new product introductions and thus could be sitting on an inventory of the current generation. Layering on top of that is model year changeover, where dealers are trying to move the 2019’s (for example) to make way for the 2020 models.
Historically, this happened in the fall. Today, that happens at any point in the year as companies try to stay in the public’s consciousness all-year round by always having something *new* to sell.
Now let’s go a step further, to the dealer level. Like automotive companies, dealers also have sales objectives and are sometimes encouraged to move particular vehicles or even specific trim levels of said models. As a result, they may be motivated to sell if they’re in danger of missing their target. Then again, that target might not be at risk because of a strong month or year.
Ambiguous, isn’t it?
The advice I give - and follow personally - is to find a vehicle and trim you want and can reasonably afford at MSRP (to start). Then find a dealer or salesperson you trust. If you have the time, watch for incentives on your desired vehicle. Get on your dealer’s radar as a prospect; they’ll send you alerts if there’s a special promotion going on.
But, if you’re up against a deadline, there are services you can subscribe to that provide invoice pricing, helping ensure you’re working from a position of knowledge.
When you’re shopping, ask questions and don’t accept anything but clear answers. Walk away with a detailed, itemized quote in writing. Then, spend some time reading everything. For example, if you can’t find VIN etching or electronic rust inhibitor systems on the manufacturer’s website - and you don’t want them - you don’t have to pay for them.
Warranty extensions can be great for those that need them, but they’re definitely not everyone.
Finally, shop the vehicle’s price and not the monthly/bi-weekly/weekly payment. When you’re trying to hit a number (less than $500 per month), almost any dealer you meet can find a way to ensure nearly any vehicle on their lot comes to $499 per month. Remember: your monthly budget is your business, not the dealer’s.
One way or another, that’s how I answer the question. I also tend to plug winter tires, because everyone needs them.
Yes, everyone. Even if you have four-wheel drive.
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